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Working Papers & Work in Progress
1. House Prices Under Rising Seas: Measuring Deep Uncertainty in Theory and Evidence, with Mike Barnett, Jacob Dice, David Rodziewicz, Constantine Yannelis [slides]
Presentation at AFA, Duke/UNC Asset Pricing, Baruch/JFQA, SITE Asset Pricing, SITE Climate Finance, U of Chicago Blue Collar Working Group, FR System Macro Meeting, FRB Richmond, Vin University, Foreign Trade University
Presentation at AFA, Duke/UNC Asset Pricing, Baruch/JFQA, SITE Asset Pricing, SITE Climate Finance, U of Chicago Blue Collar Working Group, FR System Macro Meeting, FRB Richmond, Vin University, Foreign Trade University
2. Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change, with Dasol Kim and Luke Olson [slides]
Presentation (including scheduled) at FRB Richmond, FRB Philadelphia, OCC, System Climate Meeting, SFS Cavalcade, Oxford Saïd – VU SBE Macro-finance Conference, NBER Summer Institute (Capital Markets), SITE (Asset Pricing), Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society
Presentation (including scheduled) at FRB Richmond, FRB Philadelphia, OCC, System Climate Meeting, SFS Cavalcade, Oxford Saïd – VU SBE Macro-finance Conference, NBER Summer Institute (Capital Markets), SITE (Asset Pricing), Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society
3. Credit Rationing in Unsecured Debt Markets, with V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha and Yiannis Vailakis (R&R at Journal of Economic Theory)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
4. Limited liability and disaster underinsurance, with Laura Bakkensen, John Bailey Jones, and Russell Tsz-Nga Wong [NotebookLM podcast & video]
5. Financial conditions and capital investment choices, with Òscar Jordà, Fernanda Nacho, Felipe Schwartzman [slides] Presentation at Banque de France's Climate- and Nature-Related Risks in the Economic and Financial System, Bank of England, Columbia, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Imperial College, LBS, Oxford
Publications
Climate-Related
10. Strategies for Using Markets to Adapt to Climate Change, S. Greenhill, S. Hsiang, C. Balboni, L. Barrage, I. Bolliger, J. Boomhower, D. Diaz, H. Druckenmiller, T. Garg, M. Hino, H. Hong, C. Kousky, J. Martinich, I. Nath, K. Oremus, R. J. Park, T. Phan, J. Proctor, W. Rafey, M. Sarofim, W. Schlenker, and B. Simon, forthcoming at Science
9. Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence, with Laura Bakkensen and Russell Tsz-Nga Wong [ungated pdf] [wp version] [slides] [presentation], Journal of Political Economy, 133(10): 3132-3166 (2025) https://doi.org/10.1086/737236
Nontechnical summary: 7' video (NotebookLM) + Richmond Fed economic brief
Nontechnical summary: 7' video (NotebookLM) + Richmond Fed economic brief
8. Climate Risks in Financial Markets, chapter forthcoming in vol 2 of the Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change [NotebookLM podcast]
7. Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy, with Hee Soo Kim and Christian Matthes [slides] [video] [Bank of Japan discussion (気候変動の経済学)] [replication], American Economic Journal:Macro, 17(2): 1–27 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220329 [AEJ Research Highlight]
6. Climate information on sea level rise risk influences individuals' migration preferences in Vietnam, with Laura Bakkensen, Quynh Nguyen, Paul Schuler [slides], Communications Earth & Environment (Nature), 6, 857 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02731-1
5. Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation, with Felipe Schwartzman [slides], European Economic Review special issue on Climate, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104866 [replication code]
4. Economics Chapter, 5th National Climate Assessment, Hsiang, S., S. Greenhill, J. Martinich, M. Grasso, R.M. Schuster, L. Barrage, D.B. Diaz, H. Hong, C. Kousky, T. Phan, M.C. Sarofim, W. Schlenker, B. Simon, and S.E. Sneeringer, 2023: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
White House 2023 announcement, NYT, WSJ, CNN, USA Today, Vox, Reuters, ABC News, NPR, CBS News, NPR 2025 update
White House 2023 announcement, NYT, WSJ, CNN, USA Today, Vox, Reuters, ABC News, NPR, CBS News, NPR 2025 update
3. Long-term Effects of Redlining on Environmental Risk Exposure, with Clare Conzelmann, Arianna Salazar-Miranda, and Jeremy Hoffman, Nature Cities, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00076-y
2. Race and Environmental Worries, with Ranie Lin and Lala Ma [slides] Land Economics, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3368/le.100.4.112723-0125R
1. Temperature and Growth: a Panel Analysis of the United States, with Ric Colacito and Bridget Hoffmann, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51 (2-3), 2019, 313-368 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief] [replication files] [response to a comment]
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
Macro
12. The Transmission of Quasi-Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico, with Ryan Leary and Anusha Chari, previously distributed as NBER Working Paper 24108 [slides], IMF Economic Review, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8
11. Bubbly Recessions, with Sid Biswas and Andrew Hanson, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(4), 2020, pp. 33-70 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief]
10. Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances, with Daisuke Ikeda, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(3), 2019, pp. 209-251 [slides] [pdf] [policy briefs]
9. Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles, with Andrew Graczyk, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, pp. 1-26, doi:10.1017/S1365100519000981 [pdf]
8. Time-Varying Skewness and Real Business Cycles, with Lance Kent, Economic Quarterly, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 105(2), 2019, pp. 59-103
7. Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles, with Julien Bengui, Journal of Economic Theory, 177, 2018, pp. 280-314 [pdf]
6. Sovereign Debt Signals, Journal of International Economics, 2017, 104, pp. 157-165 [pdf]
5. Nominal Sovereign Debt, International Economic Review, 58 (4), 2017, pp. 1303-1316 [pdf]
4. A Model of Sovereign Debt with Private Information, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 2017, pp. 1-17 [pdf]
3. Bubbles, Wage Rigidity, and Persistent Recessions, with Andrew Hanson, Economic Letters, 151(2), 2017, pp. 66-70 [pdf]
2. Information, Insurance and the Sustainability of Sovereign Debt, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 22, pp. 93-108 [pdf]
1. Toxic Asset Bubbles with Daisuke Ikeda, Economic Theory, 2016, 61(2), pp. 241-271 [pdf]
Math
0. Roots of the Derivative of the Riemann-Zeta Function and of Characteristic Polynomials, with Eduardo Dueñez, David W Farmer, Sara Froehlich, C P Hughes, Francesco Mezzadri, Nonlinearity, 2010, 23(10) [pdf]
Note: Because of this paper, my Erdos number is 6 :)
Some Recent (Climate-related) Discussions
NBER SI EEE 2025: "Rebuild or Relocate? Recovery after Natural Disasters" by Shifrah Aron-Dine [slides]
Bank of Canada 2024 conference: "Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature" by Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig [slides]
Banco de Chile 2023 Annual Conference: "The Macroeconomics of Climate Change" by Adrien Bilal and Jim Stock [slides]
Bundesbank 2023: "Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance" by Harrison Hong, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang (forthcoming in RFS) [slides]
ASSA 2023: "Credit Supply and Green Investments" by Accetturo et al [slides]
BOJ-IMES 2022 conference: "Climate Change Mitigation: How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing?" by Abiry, Ferdinandusse, Ludwig, Nerlich [slides]
System Climate Meeting 2022: "Climate Change & Geography of U.S. Economic Activity" by Leduc and Wilson [slides]
Bank of Italy 2021: “Macro Effects of Carbon Tax to Meet U.S. Paris Agreement Target: Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption” by Shapiro and Metcalf [slides]
IBEFA summer 2021: “The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing” by Correa, He, Herpfer, Lel [slides]
OFR 2021: “Does the Increased Availability of Transaction-Level Disclosure Exacerbate Systemic Risk?” by Hagenberg [slides]
Keynote Speeches
Rising Seas & Underwater Houses - Implications for Financial Markets, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance, Oct 2022 [recording]
Underwater Assets - Implications for Financial Markets, Annual Meeting of Hawaii State Bar Association, Nov 2022
"Science is not only a disciple of reason but also one of romance and passion" -- Stephen Hawking
