The views expressed on this website are mine and do not reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System
Working Papers
0. Climate Risks in Financial Markets, chapter prepared for vol 2 of the Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change [your comments are wanted and thanks beforehand!]
1. Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence, with Laura Bakkensen and Russell Tsz-Nga Wong [slides] [VEAMS recording] (forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy)
Nontechnical summary: Richmond Fed economic brief
Presentation at Richmond Fed, San Francisco Fed Virtual Seminar in Climate Economics, UVA-Duke-Richmond Fed research workshop, VEAMS (Virtual East Asia Macroeconomic Seminar Series), PHBS Sargent Institute Macro-Finance Workshop, Notre Dame, OCC Symposium on Climate Risk in Banking and Finance, Chicago Fed, AERE Summer Conference, Society for Economic Dynamics (SED), Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance (keynote), UC Irvine, FHFA, Midwest Finance Association (MFA), Sveriges Riksbank conference on climate change and financial system, Bank of Canada, 17th Annual Conference on General Equilibrium and its Applications at Yale Cowles, Sveriges Riksbank conference on climate change and financial stability, Federal Reserve Board...
Nontechnical summary: Richmond Fed economic brief
Presentation at Richmond Fed, San Francisco Fed Virtual Seminar in Climate Economics, UVA-Duke-Richmond Fed research workshop, VEAMS (Virtual East Asia Macroeconomic Seminar Series), PHBS Sargent Institute Macro-Finance Workshop, Notre Dame, OCC Symposium on Climate Risk in Banking and Finance, Chicago Fed, AERE Summer Conference, Society for Economic Dynamics (SED), Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance (keynote), UC Irvine, FHFA, Midwest Finance Association (MFA), Sveriges Riksbank conference on climate change and financial system, Bank of Canada, 17th Annual Conference on General Equilibrium and its Applications at Yale Cowles, Sveriges Riksbank conference on climate change and financial stability, Federal Reserve Board...
2. Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Emergent Risk, with Dasol Kim and Luke Olson [slides]
Presentation (including scheduled) at FRB Richmond, FRB Philadelphia, OCC, System Climate Meeting, SFS Cavalcade, Oxford Saïd – VU SBE Macro-finance Conference, NBER Summer Institute (Capital markets), Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society
Presentation (including scheduled) at FRB Richmond, FRB Philadelphia, OCC, System Climate Meeting, SFS Cavalcade, Oxford Saïd – VU SBE Macro-finance Conference, NBER Summer Institute (Capital markets), Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society
3. Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?, with Laura Bakkensen, Quynh Nguyen, Paul Schuler [slides] (resubmitted)
4. Credit Rationing in Unsecured Debt Markets, with V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha and Yiannis Vailakis (R&R at Journal of Economic Theory)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
4. Credit Rationing in Unsecured Debt Markets, with V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha and Yiannis Vailakis (R&R at Journal of Economic Theory)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
Work in progress
A Market-Based Measure of Ambiguity Aversion: Housing Prices Under Rising Seas, with Mike Barnett, Jacob Dice, David Rodziewicz, Constantine Yannelis
Presentation at SITE Asset Pricing, SITE Climate Finance, U of Chicago Blue Collar Working Group, FRB Richmond
Presentation at SITE Asset Pricing, SITE Climate Finance, U of Chicago Blue Collar Working Group, FRB Richmond
Sinking Balances: The Debt Factor in Insurance Uptake, with Laura Bakkensen, John Bailey Jones, and Russell Tsz-Nga Wong
Presentation at FRB Richmond
Presentation at FRB Richmond
Interest Rates and Energy Efficiency, with Òscar Jordà, Fernanda Nacho, Felipe Schwartzman
Presentation at Columbia, UC Irvine
Presentation at Columbia, UC Irvine
Publications
Climate-Related
6. Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy, with Hee Soo Kim and Christian Matthes [slides] [video] [Bank of Japan discussion (気候変動の経済学)] [replication], American Economic Journal:Macro, 17(2): 1–27 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220329 AEJ Research Highlight
5. Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation, with Felipe Schwartzman [slides], European Economic Review special issue on Climate, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104866 [replication code]
4. 5th National Climate Assessment, Ch. 19: Economics, Hsiang, S., S. Greenhill, J. Martinich, M. Grasso, R.M. Schuster, L. Barrage, D.B. Diaz, H. Hong, C. Kousky, T. Phan, M.C. Sarofim, W. Schlenker, B. Simon, and S.E. Sneeringer, 2023: U.S. Global Change Research Program. [pdf]
Announcement by the White House, NYT, CNN, USA Today, Vox, Reuters, ABC News, NPR, CBS News
Announcement by the White House, NYT, CNN, USA Today, Vox, Reuters, ABC News, NPR, CBS News
3. Long-term Effects of Redlining on Environmental Risk Exposure, with Clare Conzelmann, Arianna Salazar-Miranda, and Jeremy Hoffman, Nature Cities, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00076-y
2. Race and Environmental Worries, with Ranie Lin and Lala Ma [slides] Land Economics, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3368/le.100.4.112723-0125R
1. Temperature and Growth: a Panel Analysis of the United States, with Ric Colacito and Bridget Hoffmann, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51 (2-3), 2019, 313-368 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief] [replication files] [response to a comment]
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
Macro
12. The Transmission of Quasi-Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico, with Ryan Leary and Anusha Chari, previously distributed as NBER Working Paper 24108 [slides], IMF Economic Review, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8
11. Bubbly Recessions, with Sid Biswas and Andrew Hanson, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(4), 2020, pp. 33-70 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief]
10. Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances, with Daisuke Ikeda, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(3), 2019, pp. 209-251 [slides] [pdf] [policy briefs]
9. Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles, with Andrew Graczyk, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, pp. 1-26, doi:10.1017/S1365100519000981 [pdf]
8. Time-Varying Skewness and Real Business Cycles, with Lance Kent, Economic Quarterly, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 105(2), 2019, pp. 59-103
7. Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles, with Julien Bengui, Journal of Economic Theory, 177, 2018, pp. 280-314 [pdf]
6. Sovereign Debt Signals, Journal of International Economics, 2017, 104, pp. 157-165 [pdf]
5. Nominal Sovereign Debt, International Economic Review, 58 (4), 2017, pp. 1303-1316 [pdf]
4. A Model of Sovereign Debt with Private Information, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 2017, pp. 1-17 [pdf]
3. Bubbles, Wage Rigidity, and Persistent Recessions, with Andrew Hanson, Economic Letters, 151(2), 2017, pp. 66-70 [pdf]
2. Information, Insurance and the Sustainability of Sovereign Debt, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 22, pp. 93-108 [pdf]
1. Toxic Asset Bubbles with Daisuke Ikeda, Economic Theory, 2016, 61(2), pp. 241-271 [pdf]
Math
0. Roots of the Derivative of the Riemann-Zeta Function and of Characteristic Polynomials, with Eduardo Dueñez, David W Farmer, Sara Froehlich, C P Hughes, Francesco Mezzadri, Nonlinearity, 2010, 23(10) [pdf]
Note: Because of this paper, my Erdos number is 6 :)
Some Recent (Climate-related) Discussions
1. Bank of Canada 2024 conference: "Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature" by Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig [slides]
2. Banco de Chile 2023 Annual Conference: "The Macroeconomics of Climate Change" by Adrien Bilal and Jim Stock [slides]
3. Bundesbank 2023: "Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance" by Harrison Hong, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang (forthcoming in RFS) [slides]
4. ASSA 2023: "Credit Supply and Green Investments" by Accetturo et al [slides]
5. BOJ-IMES 2022 conference: "Climate Change Mitigation: How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing?" by Abiry, Ferdinandusse, Ludwig, Nerlich [slides]
6. System Climate Meeting 2022: "Climate Change & Geography of U.S. Economic Activity" by Leduc and Wilson [slides]
7. Bank of Italy 2021: “Macro Effects of Carbon Tax to Meet U.S. Paris Agreement Target: Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption” by Shapiro and Metcalf [slides]
8. IBEFA summer 2021: “The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing” by Correa, He, Herpfer, Lel [slides]
9. OFR 2021: “Does the Increased Availability of Transaction-Level Disclosure Exacerbate Systemic Risk?” by Hagenberg [slides]
Keynote Speeches
Rising Seas & Underwater Houses - Implications for Financial Markets, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance, Oct 2022 [recording]
Underwater Assets - Implications for Financial Markets, Annual Meeting of Hawaii State Bar Association, Nov 2022
"Science is not only a disciple of reason but also one of romance and passion" -- Stephen Hawking