The views expressed on this website are mine and do not reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System
Working Papers
1. Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence, with Laura Bakkensen and Russell Tsz-Nga Wong [slides] [FRB SF recording VEAMS recording] (submitted)
Nontechnical summary: Richmond Fed economic brief
Presentation (including scheduled) at Richmond Fed, San Francisco Fed Virtual Seminar in Climate Economics, UVA-Duke-Richmond Fed research workshop, VEAMS (Virtual East Asia Macroeconomic Seminar Series), PHBS Sargent Institute Macro-Finance Workshop, Notre Dame, OCC Symposium on Climate Risk in Banking and Finance, Chicago Fed, AERE Summer Conference, Society for Economic Dynamics (SED), Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance (keynote), UC Irvine, FHFA, Midwest Finance Association (MFA), Sveriges Riksbank, Bank of Canada.
Nontechnical summary: Richmond Fed economic brief
Presentation (including scheduled) at Richmond Fed, San Francisco Fed Virtual Seminar in Climate Economics, UVA-Duke-Richmond Fed research workshop, VEAMS (Virtual East Asia Macroeconomic Seminar Series), PHBS Sargent Institute Macro-Finance Workshop, Notre Dame, OCC Symposium on Climate Risk in Banking and Finance, Chicago Fed, AERE Summer Conference, Society for Economic Dynamics (SED), Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance (keynote), UC Irvine, FHFA, Midwest Finance Association (MFA), Sveriges Riksbank, Bank of Canada.
2. Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy, with Hee Soo Kim and Christian Matthes [slides] [video] [Bank of Japan discussion (気候変動の経済学)] (submitted)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) conference, Econometrics of Climate Energy and Resources ((EC)2) at Aarhus, King's College (Qatar Centre for Global Banking Virtual Seminar Series), IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop, Riksbank
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) conference, Econometrics of Climate Energy and Resources ((EC)2) at Aarhus, King's College (Qatar Centre for Global Banking Virtual Seminar Series), IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop, Riksbank
3. Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation, with Felipe Schwartzman [slides]
Presentation at IMF Climate-Related Natural Disasters: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Responses, UCLA Climate Adaptation Symposium, Cambridge University Mini-conference on Climate Change, FRB Richmond Climate Change Economics workshop, FRB Richmond Sovereign Debt Week workshop, FRB System brown bag, FRB Richmond brown bag, Osaka University ISER, FRB Board
4. Long-term Effects of Redlining on Environmental Risk Exposure, with Clare Conzelmann, Arianna Salazar-Miranda, and Jeremy Hoffman (submitted)
5. Heterogeneous Bank Learning and Climate Adaptation: Evidence from Hurricane Harvey, with Dasol Kim and Luke Olson (very preliminary)
6. Pecuniary Externalities in Competitive Debt Markets with Limited Pledgeability, with V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha and Yiannis Vailakis (submitted)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
Presentation at FRB Richmond, Virginia Tech, Duke University Triangle Dynamic Macro workshop, University of Tokyo, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Clara University, University of Virginia, Economics School of Louvain, Sao Paulo School of Economics, and the Canon Institute for Global Studies Macroeconomic conference
7. The Transmission of Quasi-Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico, with Ryan Leary and Anusha Chari, previously distributed as NBER Working Paper 24108 [slides] (revision requested)
Presentation at GIC Drexel sovereign debt conference, IMF OAP-PRI 2020, SED 2019, NBER IFM fall 2018, DebtCon 2017, FRB BOG, FRB Richmond, Georgetown University, Sao Paolo School of Economics
8. Race and Environmental Worries, with Ranie Lin and Lala Ma [slides] (submitted)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, FRB NY, AERE/CFAR
Presentation at GIC Drexel sovereign debt conference, IMF OAP-PRI 2020, SED 2019, NBER IFM fall 2018, DebtCon 2017, FRB BOG, FRB Richmond, Georgetown University, Sao Paolo School of Economics
8. Race and Environmental Worries, with Ranie Lin and Lala Ma [slides] (submitted)
Presentation at FRB Richmond, FRB NY, AERE/CFAR
Publications in Academic Journals
12. Bubbly Recessions, with Sid Biswas and Andrew Hanson, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(4), 2020, pp. 33-70 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief]
11. Temperature and Growth: a Panel Analysis of the United States, with Ric Colacito and Bridget Hoffmann, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51 (2-3), 2019, 313-368 [slides] [pdf] [policy brief] [replication files] [response to a comment]
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
Reprinted as “The Impact of Rising Temperature on U.S. Economic Growth,” Chapter 19, World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change, World Scientific, 2021. Mention in policy discussions: US Congress Joint Economic Committee's report to the President, Congressional testimony. Mention in media: WSJ 2018, 2019 April & July; Bloomberg 2018 & 2019; CNN; CBS; Guardian; Business Insider; ThinkProgress; Governors' wind and solar coalition; EEA video; VoxEU; FRB-SF Economic Letter, Bank of Japan,...
10. Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances, with Daisuke Ikeda, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(3), 2019, pp. 209-251 [slides] [pdf] [policy briefs]
9. Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles, with Andrew Graczyk, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, pp. 1-26, doi:10.1017/S1365100519000981 [pdf]
8. Time-Varying Skewness and Real Business Cycles, with Lance Kent, Economic Quarterly, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 105(2), 2019, pp. 59-103
7. Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles, with Julien Bengui, Journal of Economic Theory, 177, 2018, pp. 280-314 [pdf]
6. Sovereign Debt Signals, Journal of International Economics, 2017, 104, pp. 157-165 [pdf]
5. Nominal Sovereign Debt, International Economic Review, 58 (4), 2017, pp. 1303-1316 [pdf]
4. A Model of Sovereign Debt with Private Information, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 2017, pp. 1-17 [pdf]
3. Bubbles, Wage Rigidity, and Persistent Recessions, with Andrew Hanson, Economic Letters, 151(2), 2017, pp. 66-70 [pdf]
2. Information, Insurance and the Sustainability of Sovereign Debt, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 22, pp. 93-108 [pdf]
1. Toxic Asset Bubbles with Daisuke Ikeda, Economic Theory, 2016, 61(2), pp. 241-271 [pdf]
0. Roots of the Derivative of the Riemann-Zeta Function and of Characteristic Polynomials, with Eduardo Dueñez, David W Farmer, Sara Froehlich, C P Hughes, Francesco Mezzadri, Nonlinearity, 2010, 23(10) [pdf]
Ongoing Projects
1. Imperfect Information and Climate Migration: Evidence from a National Field Experiment in Vietnam (tentative title), with Laura Bakkensen, Quynh Nguyen and Paul Schuler
2. Causal Effects of Historical Redlining on Exposure to Climate Risks (tentative title), with Claire Conzelmann, Jeremy Hoffman and Arianna Salazar Miranda
3. A Climate Macro Model with Financial Friction (tentative title), with Daisuke Ikeda
Some Recent (Climate-related) Discussions
1. ASSA 2023: "Credit Supply and Green Investments" by Accetturo et al [slides]
2. BOJ-IMES 2022 conference: "Climate Change Mitigation: How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing?" by Abiry, Ferdinandusse, Ludwig, Nerlich [slides]
3. System Climate Meeting 2022: "Climate Change & Geography of U.S. Economic Activity" by Leduc and Wilson [slides]
4. Bank of Italy 2021: “Macro Effects of Carbon Tax to Meet U.S. Paris Agreement Target: Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption” by Shapiro and Metcalf [slides]
5. IBEFA summer 2021: “The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing” by Correa, He, Herpfer, Lel [slides]
6. OFR 2021: “Does the Increased Availability of Transaction-Level Disclosure Exacerbate Systemic Risk?” by Hagenberg [slides]
Keynote Speeches
Rising Seas & Underwater Houses - Implications for Financial Markets, Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance, Oct 2022 [recording]
Underwater Assets - Implications for Financial Markets, Annual Meeting of Hawaii State Bar Association, Nov 2022
"Science is not only a disciple of reason but also one of romance and passion" -- Stephen Hawking